The Kalshi ≥7% unemployment bucket bounced from 63% back to 71% (+8pp) — perfectly reverting the -8pp crash from one hour prior. The prior call (04:45 AEST report) that this was a single-position unwind, not fundamental repricing, is now confirmed. All other buckets remained flat throughout. The market's true equilibrium for "US unemployment ≥7% before 2030" is ~71%, and the ceiling trigger at 74% is back within 3pp.
At 04:31 AEST, only the ≥7% bucket moved (-8pp). All other buckets were unchanged. A genuine fundamental repricing would shift all buckets proportionally.
As of 05:31 AEST — Kalshi "How high will unemployment get before 2030?"
| Bucket | Probability | Visual | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≥6% | 77% | Base case — virtually certain | |
| ≥7% ⚠️ | 71% | LIKELY — ceiling test 74% just 3pp away | |
| ≥8% | 56% | Coin flip — moderate recession | |
| ≥9% | 44% | Possible — deep recession | |
| ≥10-11% | 25% | Tail risk — severe recession | |
| ≥12-13% | 15% | Extreme tail — near-depression |
With Iran war at 99.8% certainty, Hormuz closed, and oil at $120 floor / $130 coin-flip, the ≥8% bucket at 56% looks modestly underpriced. The market treats a deep recession (8%+ unemployment) as barely above 50/50 in a confirmed-war, Hormuz-closed world. Historically, sustained oil above $100-120 for 6+ months precedes significant job losses. If the war runs past July with no ceasefire, this bucket should be pricing closer to 65-70%.
| Trigger | Current | Threshold | Distance | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ≥7% ceiling ↑74% | 71% | 74% | 3pp ⚠️ | MOST IMMINENT |
| WTI $200 April ↑8% | 3.8% | 8% | 4.2pp | Watching |
| G7 Withdrawal ↑12% | 8% | 12% | 4pp | Watching |
| Clarence Thomas resign ↑55% | 51% | 55% | 4pp | Watching |
| Kalshi ≥12-13% catastrophe ↑20% | 15% | 20% | 5pp | Watching |
| Trump resign escalation ↑25% | 20% | 25% | 5pp | Watching |
| Kalshi ≥7% floor ↓58% | 71% | 58% | 13pp ✅ | Resolved |
| Market | Price | 24h Δ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by Apr 30 | 99.8% | +17.2pp | Certainty — $155M volume |
| US-Iran ceasefire April 7 | 2.9% | +1.6pp | Resolves in hours — NO |
| WTI $120 April | 80.0% | +5.5pp | Oil floor confirmed |
| WTI $130 April | 49.5% | -0.5pp | Coin flip — slight fade |
| WTI $140 April | 31.5% | +0.5pp | 16.5pp from trigger |
| WTI $150 April | 19.5% | +0.5pp | 15.5pp from trigger |
| WTI $200 April ⚠️ | 3.8% | +0.1pp | 4.2pp from trigger — mispriced vs. oil exec warnings |
| Hormuz normalizes Apr 30 | 14.0% | — | 6pp from trigger |
| Fed holds April | 98.0% | -0.4pp | Stable — minor wobble |
| Trump visits China by May 31 | 64.5% | +0.5pp | Key tariff signal — 10.5pp from trigger |
| ASX Sector / Stock | Bias | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| WDS (Woodside), STO (Santos) | ▲ BULLISH | WTI $120 floor confirmed; LNG price linkage. $120+ oil = meaningful earnings upside vs. budgeted ~$90-95. |
| NST (Northern Star), EVN (Evolution) | ▲ BULLISH | War risk premium + USD uncertainty supports gold. AUD weakness amplifies AUD-denominated gold revenue. |
| BHP, RIO, FMG | ◼ MIXED | Oil cost input rises but iron ore/copper prices depend on Chinese demand. China GDP at risk from global slowdown. |
| QAN (Qantas) | ▼ BEARISH | Jet fuel ~30% of costs. $120+ oil = significant margin compression. Profit warning risk if oil holds above $130. |
| WOW (Woolworths), COL (Coles) | ▼ HEADWIND | Diesel at ~322c/litre squeezes supply chain costs. Freight surcharges being absorbed or passed to consumers. |
| AZJ (Aurizon), GNC (GrainCorp) | ▼ HEADWIND | Rail/freight (diesel-intensive) and agricultural (diesel + fertiliser input) costs rising. Margin squeeze ongoing. |
| ANZ, CBA, NAB, WBC | ◼ WATCH | RBA holding rate (mirrors US Fed at 98%). Housing stress if unemployment ≥7% scenario plays out — monitor credit quality. |
Fuel reference (early April 2026): Petrol ~232c/litre | Diesel ~322c/litre | Excise half-cut effective April 1, 2026 (~26.3c/litre cut)