The unemployment ≥7% before 2030 market has returned to 73% for the fifth consecutive time, bouncing +7pp from the 66% floor. The trigger threshold of 74% is now just 1pp away — but this is the same position reached four times previously without a breakout. The structural range (66–73%) is confirmed. Ceiling resistance weakens with each failed test; the sixth challenge is statistically more likely to break through.
All buckets from "How high will unemployment get before 2030?" — only the ≥7% bucket moved this run (+7pp). The entire rest of the curve is frozen, indicating the market dispute is specifically about crossing the 7% threshold.
P(≥8% | ≥7%) = 56/73 = 77% — if unemployment breaches 7%, the crowd says it likely reaches 8% before stabilising. But P(≥12% | ≥11%) = 12/23 = 52% — beyond 11% is genuinely a coin flip. The market prices a contained shock, not a structural crisis. The 2008-style 10%+ scenario carries only 34% probability.
| Market | Price | Change | Trigger | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW: Trump ends Iran ops by Apr 15 | 13.5% | NEW $1.7M | ↑25% | 11.5pp |
| Trump ends Iran ops by Apr 30 | 31.5% | +1.0pp | ↓20% | 11.5pp |
| WTI $130 in April | 47.5% | +1.0pp | ↑65% | 17.5pp |
| WTI $140 in April | 34.5% | flat | ↑48% | 13.5pp |
| WTI $150 in April | 18.5% | flat | ↑35% | 16.5pp |
| Hormuz normalizes by Apr 30 | 14.5% | -1.0pp | ↑20% | 5.5pp |
| Israel ground ops in Iran | 23.5% | -0.5pp | ↑45% | 21.5pp |
| Kharg Island falls by Apr 30 | 18.5% | flat | ↑30% | 11.5pp |
| US-Iran ceasefire by Apr 30 | 21.5% | flat | ↓10% | 11.5pp |
| US enters Iran (war confirmed) | ~99.9% | resolved | — | — |
| Market | Price | Change | Trigger | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥7% unemployment before 2030 | 73% | +7.0pp ⚡ | ↑74% | 1pp |
| ≥8% unemployment before 2030 | 56% | flat | — | — |
| Trump resign | 20% | -1.0pp | ↑25% / ↓15% | 5pp (up) / 5pp (dn) |
| Clarence Thomas resign | 47% | -1.0pp | — | — |
| Hegseth next to leave cabinet | 16% | -1.0pp | — | — |
| National debt hits $40T | 95% | -1.0pp | — | — |
Price: 13.5% — The market says there is an 86.5% chance the US Iran war continues past April 15 (9 days from now).
Cross-referencing with April 30 market (31.5%):
This rules out a "sudden ceasefire" scenario. Any diplomatic back-channel would need to mature over 1–2 weeks before manifesting. The April 15 market is the circuit-breaker canary: a spike above 25% signals imminent breakthrough. New trigger added at 25%.
The ≥7% bucket oscillates ±7pp every 15–30 minutes between two structural counterparties. This is range noise until the range breaks. The real macro signal is the ≥8% bucket (56%), which has not moved.
If ≥7% breaks above 74% (trigger fires) and the ≥8% bucket simultaneously re-rates from 56% → 65%+, the market is pricing a genuine downward spiral. That two-bucket move is the actual recession signal.
If ≥7% fires but ≥8% stays at 56%, it means the market priced a threshold-touch but not a deeper cycle. Buy defensive equities, not a full recession hedge.
kalshi-unemployment-7pct current price: 0.66 → 0.73 (fifth bounce to ceiling)kalshi-unemployment-7pct-floor current price: 0.66 → 0.73kalshi-trump-resign-consolidation current: 0.21 → 0.20 (marginal cooling)kalshi-trump-resign-escalation current: 0.21 → 0.20trump-ends-iran-apr15 trigger: above 25% — New Polymarket, $1.7M volume, currently 13.5%, 9-day deadline. Diplomatic circuit-breaker market.